Deep Depression over Arabian Sea – Pre Cyclone Watch warning for Gujarat coast

A low pressure area formed over southeast Arabian Sea (AS) and adjoining Lakshadweep and eastcentral AS in the morning (0830 hrs IST) and became well marked low pressure area over the same region in the evening (1730 hrs IST) of 9^th June, 2019. Under favourable environmental conditions, it intensified into a depression over the same region in the morning (0530 hrs IST) of today, the 10^th June, 2019 near latitude 11.7°N and longitude 71.0°E. Moving north- northwestwards, it intensified into a deep depression at 1130 hrs IST and lay centered near latitude 12.5°N and longitude 70.9°E over eastcentral and adjoining southeast AS & Lakshadweep area, about 250 km northwest of Aminidivi (Lakshadweep), 760 km south-southwest of Mumbai (Maharashtra) and 930 km south-southeast of Veraval (Gujarat).

It is very likely to intensify further into a Cyclonic Storm during next 24 hours and into a Severe Cyclonic Storm in subsequent 24 hours. It is likely to move north-northwestwards during next 72 hours.

It is very likely to cause adverse impact in terms of wind & rainfall over Saurashtra & Kutch mainly on 13^th & 14^th June, 2019.

Forecast track and intensity are given in the following table:

 

Date/Time(IST)	Position (Lat. 0N/ long. 0E)	Maximum sustained surface wind speed (Kmph)	Category of cyclonic disturbance
10.06.19/1130	12.5/70.9	50-60 gusting to 70	Deep Depression
10.06.19/1730	13.2/70.8	55-65 gusting to 75	Deep Depression
11.06.19/0530	14.6/70.5	65-75 gusting to 85	Cyclonic Storm
11.06.19/1730	16.0/70.3	80-90 gusting to 100	Cyclonic Storm
12.06.19/0530	17.5/70.0	90-100 gusting to 115	Severe Cyclonic Storm
12.06.19/1730	19.0/69.8	100-110 gusting to 125	Severe Cyclonic Storm
13.06.19/0530	20.3/69.6	110-120 gusting to 135	Severe Cyclonic Storm

Warnings:

1. Heavy rainfall warning:

Sub-Divisions	10 June 2019 *	11 June 2019*	12 June 2019*	13 June 2019*	14 June 2019*
	Widespread	Widespread	Widespread rainfall with heavy to very heavy falls at isolated places	Widespread	Widespread
Kerala	rainfall with heavy falls at	rainfall with heavy falls at		rainfall with heavy falls at	rainfall with heavy falls at isolated
	isolated places	isolated places		isolated places	places
	Widespread
Lakshadweep area	rainfall with heavy to very heavy falls at	Widespread rainfall	Widespread rainfall	Widespread rainfall	Widespread rainfall
	isolated places

 

Coastal Karnataka	Widespread rainfall with heavy to very heavy falls at isolated places	Widespread rainfall with heavy falls at isolated places	Widespread rainfall with heavy falls at isolated places	Widespread rainfall with heavy falls at isolated places	Widespread rainfall with heavy falls at isolated places
South Interior Karnataka	Fairly widespread rainfall with heavy falls at isolated places	Rainfall at a few places	Rainfall at a few places	Rainfall at a few places	Rainfall at a few places
Konkan & Goa	Rainfall at a few places with isolated heavy falls over Goa	Fairly widespread rainfall with heavy falls at isolated places	Widespread rainfall with heavy falls at isolated places	Fairly widespread rainfall with heavy falls at isolated places	Fairly widespread rainfall
Saurashtra & Kutch	Dry	Rainfall at isolated places	Rainfall at a few places with heavy rainfall at isolated places	Fairly widespread rainfall with heavy to very heavy falls at isolated places	Fairly widespread rainfall with heavy falls at isolated places

 

Note: * Rainfall till 0830 IST of next day.

Legends:       Yellow: Be Updated; Orange- Be prepared; Red- Take action, Green: No warning

Heavy rain: 64.5-115.5 mm/day; Very heavy rain: 115.6-204.4 mm/day; Extremely heavy rain: more than

204.4 mm/day

(ii) Wind warning

5. 10^th June: Squally wind speed reaching 50-60 kmph gusting to 70 kmph very likely to prevail over Eastcentral and adjoining Southeast Arabian Sea & Lakshadweep area. The strong wind speed reaching 35-45 kmph gusting to 55 kmph very likely to prevail over Kerala & Karnataka Coasts.
5. 11^th June: Wind speed is very likely to increase gradually and become gale wind speed reaching 65-75 kmph gusting to 85 kmph over eastcentral & adjoining southeast Arabian Sea. It is very likely to be 40-50 kmph gusting to 60 kmph over Lakshadweep area, Kerala, Karnataka & south Maharashtra Coasts.
5. 12^th June: Wind speed is very likely to increase further becoming gale wind speed reaching 90- 100 kmph gusting to 115 kmph over eastcentral & adjoining northeast Arabian Sea. It is very likely to be 50-60 kmph gusting to 70 kmph over Gujarat Coast from 12^th morning and become 65-75 kmph gusting to 85 kmph by 12^th evening. It is very likely to be 50-60 kmph gusting to 70 kmph over Maharashtra Coast.
5. 13^th June: Wind speed is very likely to increase further becomes 110-120 kmph gusting to 135 kmph over north Arabian Sea. It is very likely to be 65-75 kmph gusting to 85 kmph over Gujarat coast; and 50-60 kmph gusting to 70 kmph over north Maharashtra Coasts & northern parts of eastcentral Arabian Sea.

(iii) Sea condition

5. The sea condition is very likely to be rough to very rough over Southeast and adjoining Lakshadweep area & Eastcentral Arabian Sea on 10^th and very rough to high over eastcentral & adjoining southeast Arabian Sea on 11^th. The sea condition is very likely to be high to very high over