Rainfall Prediction


It was a good news the government couldn’t wait to share. Amid prevailing drought and severe drinking water crisis in many parts of the country, the meteorological department Tuesday said this year’s monsoon season was likely to bring very good rainfall.

In its first forecast for this monsoon season, the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) said rainfall in the four-month period of June to September was likely to be 106 per cent of the long period average (LPA). This LPA, the average of monsoon rain over the 50-year period from 1951 to 2001, comes to 89 cm and is considered normal. So this season, the country as a whole is likely to receive about 94 cm of rainfall.

The forecast is likely to bring widespread cheer in the country, which is reeling under a drought after two successive years of highly deficient rainfall during monsoon season. That was probably the reason the Met department advanced the announcement of its forecast by about two weeks, the earliest it has issued it in the last 10 years. The first forecast for the monsoon is generally issued in the third or fourth week of April. Only once since 2010 has the forecast been announced before April 20. That was in 2011.

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