Opinion || ONE HUNDRED CRORES SURPASSED and YET MILES TO COVER

The recent unbelievable, nevertheless, remarkable achievement on Covid vaccine front ,speaks eloquently about India’s acumen,capacity and potential.

Addressing the nation at 10 am on 22nd October,the PM said ” It is Not just a number but symbol of the country’s Ability and of A New India.”

It happened against umpteen visible and invisible challenges, 289 days after the launch of our own Covishield and Covaxin. More under pressure, if not competition with Pfizer and AstraZeneca vaxins.Latter were first introduced in U.K, soon to be administered in USA in first fortnight of December.Launch was preponed due to some” other” claim related considerations.

 

HATS OFF TO HEALTH MINISTRY & Co-WIN

2) The vital figures compiled with due care & attention by the Co-WIN,under competent guidance of the Health Ministry have to be believed, irrespective of initial controversies connected to reporting, by some of the major states.

3) There was a time when dip in daily vaccinations,supply bottlenecks and marked hesitancy among targetted people, including health personnel, emerged as major constraints,if not challenges.
Having begun the daunting task on 16th January,2021, India’s dedicated campaign picked up rapid speed soon with rightly chosen first three Frontline categories as per risk & vulnerability considerations.
Nevertheless, same hobbled by mid July. Against a “summit” of 5.8 million daily vaccinations in the last week of June, it dropped to 3.5 millions by 11th July.

LACK OF EXPECTED STIMULUS FROM STATES

4) Both the Centre and some major,rather opposition ruled states should take moral responsibility for alleged tussle in procurement mechanism.
To ensure smooth sailing to common man, the states, after having faced shortages,were advised to float global tenders even,but of no avail.
Centre had no option but to take command again by fresh takeover of purchase responsibility, offering free doses to all adults and assigning 75% of the supplies to the states.
Further, owing to highest ever spate of over 4 lakh 14 thousand cases on 7th May, general psychology of patients and suspected ones was, in a way, put to litmus test.
Seeing no other option, PEOPLE BEGAN COMING FORWARD FOR VAXINS. States were firmly directed to open new centers. With the passage of time, supply bottlenecks too were overcome.Encouraged by these positives,it was hoped that with daily administration of eight to ten million injections,the then target of vaccinating all the eligible adults could have been achieved by 31st December 2021.It was contrary to an assessment to the former Health Minister, that is, ONLY SOMETIMES IN 2023, REVISED NATIONAL TARGET WAS TO BE MET.

STATISTICS AND BEYOND

5) We may be better than USA,U.K., Brazil,Russia,Syria,Turkey, Iran,Malyasia,Singapore,Australia,New Zealand and even China,when it comes to statistics not jugglery. There are pockets in China,Mongolia and many European and Latin American countries which belied expectations in not only slowing down the rate of vaccinations but having seen resurgence once or twice in the recent past. In the meanwhile, guesswork or conjectures too began having a field day relating to the Efficacy of less than six vaxins in the world market. Varying Claims upto 77% in general, were made.

VAXIN EFFICACY

6) When U.K.,first country to start, officially NOTED or confirmed the effect of vaxins,ball began rolling again, if not according to myriad and confused “expectations”.
Logically speaking, more and more of fulfilling of target, could have led to rapid fall in confirmed cases but in India,as compared to situation during the peak period of September 2020 ,things became worse and the gigantic figure of 4 lakhs 14 thousand & 188 on 7th May was unfortunately recorded.
Not only the number increased drastically, psychologically too people, especially from rich sections were more shaken and shattered vis a vis first wave. Panic ruled the roost all over. Each time, phone would ring, one was expecting a negative news in the consanguinal family.On the positive side, not to fail, bond of Joint family got a fresh lease of life even in ultra modern USA.

AWEFUL UNFAIR PATIENT CENTRED PRACTICES

7) The Oxygen Cylinder GAME , coupled with created shortage of beds for obvious monetary gains(sick) and rampant cheating in the name of Covid test (yes, this writer too was a victim) and issue of Fake Corona Positive Certificates due to extreme agony and helplessness factor in every family, added Fat to the burning Fire. Many cases of wrong estimation,overall hike in prices and tariff, entry of hoteliers cum smugglers into the grim scene too began being sadly witnessed.

LACK OF DIGNITY IN DEATH

8) The number of serious and precarious cases as also deaths went on a swelling spree,more so, in Delhi,Surat,Bhopal,Prayagraj, Arrah, Bengaluru ,Mumbai etc. Even disposal of dead bodies came under the spell of fear,further infection and who knows, intimidation in more than one place. While there was hardly any praise for concerted efforts made equally by the Indian states and the Centre in the international media, unwarranted pathetic saga of 1918-21 Spanish Flu time were recalled and recounted,rather shamelessly. Ganga Maa, her tributaries and some other river fronts,yet again,were at Receiving End.

Even close relatives & so called upper caste persons got indirectly involved in cremation and burial rituals. It was an unimaginable scene that defied

all logic, decency and religiosity.
The states of Bihar,U.P., West Bengal, Gujarat, Maharastra, M.P., Delhi and lately Kerala had no regrets about wrong and misleading reporting on this count,which also included wide variation in figures maintained by Cremation & Cemetries vis a vis State Registrars of Births& Deaths.
The total number of deaths in the country at 454,269 so far with an average of 231 to 245 deaths per day since August may be still be a matter of deep concern.This figure was 431 to 480 in the preceding months. On 22nd Oct. all of a sudden it has recorded a high of 666 as against 16,326 confirmed daily cases, mainly because of statistical mismanagement of Kerala. A few months ago, Bihar had this dubious distinction.

LAXITY TO BE DETRIMENTAL

9 ) With impressive figures,such as, National Recovery Rate of 98.17 %, Positivity Rate of 1.19%, 173,594 Active cases, 33,548,605 Recoveries and 59,97,71,320 persons Tested As On Date,things may look slightly comfortable at Present.

But A STATE OF EVER ALERT Is Necessary in view of once again casual style of the masses towards Masks,Hand wash and Social Distancing.

ALSO Free mixing during the Onam and Durga Puja in Kerala and West Bengal respectively have already upsurged daily cases and mortality figures in these and some other urban centres.

WHITHER C.F.R.& Recent Upsurge in Daily Cases in a Handful of States ?

10) Overall Case Fatality Ratio of 1.23 % for urban areas and 1.19 % for Villages and close to national average CFR in tiny Sikkim, despite one hundred % Vaccine coverage, together with ever rising daily cases in Mizoram,Kerala and West Bengal LEAD TO CERTAIN RISE IN ANXIETY LEVEL OF GOVT.OF INDIA.

FRESH ATTEMPTS AT CONTROL & NORMALCY

11) From this kind of pathetic situation,bringing back the train of Covid Control back to the main line was not an easy proposition.

Was it not herculean or daunting indeed ?
Not only fresh steps were taken, review mechanism at the PM level directly and also anchored by Health Minister and Secretary, Health were spruced up. These were tightened further, as per circumstance or need.There were,nevertheless,some villains in form of West Bengal,Maharastra,Punjab, Tamil Nadu, Kerala or obliquely, Chattisgarh,Bihar and Assam,who would not supply correct figures.Such a behavior pattern added to creating confusion also in the number of casualties.

SAVE YOUR SKIN,BLAME THE OTHER PARTY

12) Coming to casualties,not only some of these states,but M.P.,Gujarat, Delhi,Andhra etc.too began showing their non cooperative attitude,even after not uttering a single word in a seriesof 22 Reviews taken meticulously by the P.M. himself. One can imagine the task,challenge,impediment and overall headache of the Central Govt.under the circumstances.

FACTS SPEAK LANGUAGE OF COMPASSION,PATIENCE , TOLERANCE & PERSEVERANCE

13) If the daily figure of 25 million Vaccinations on the birth Anniversary day of the P.M.,followed by FASTEST RECORD ANYWHERE OF 100 CRORE FIRST DOSE VACCINES(102.10 Crores on 23rd October) WAS FINALLY ACHIEVED BY BHARAT VARSH, MAXIMUM CREDIT WILL HAVE TO GO TO THE P.M.,WHO ASSISTED BY A FEW ADVISORS & Health Ministry RIGHTLY LED FROM FRONT.

COULD WE CALL HIM A HUMAN ARMY COMMANDER-in-CHIEF ?

May God further strengthen his hands, WILL POWER & Sense of Commitment .

14) What USA, Brazil, U.K, Canada,China, Russia etc could not do,we,allegedly “lethargic” Indians, bereft of a true National Character, have done. It was an example of true professionalism upon scoring over nations and reputed self proclaimed critics of Vaxin Diplomacy.
It has been learnt from NET sources that only Canada(71 % 1st Dose vaccine coverage),China(70%) and USA(56%) are ahead of India. But despite having created a record at 9.47 am on 21st October, India could have a coverage % of 37. However, the point which may go in our favour is that India having second largest population of the World after China could attain this encouraging deadline within just 289 days.
IT SHALL ALWAYS GIVE AN UPPER HAND TO INDIA.
And Govt.of India actually began vaccinating her suffering masses after supplying vaccines to as many as 89 countries.
,some receiving free of cost.

15) Instead of receiving accolades for her yeomen service at initial stages of the first wave,our humble and unassuming PM got unfortunate brickbats from leader of a Superpower.

HAVING A COVID ALLEVIATION MISSION MODE OR A READY RECKONER BASED ROAD MAP

16) For Preparing A Road Map for Future,
* First and foremost, correct figure of projected population of the country, District wise will have to be arrived at, in active consultation with the Chief Census Commisioner and the State authorities ,
**Thereafter, Day ,Week and Month wise realistic and very much achievable Vaxin targets should be fixed,
* Number of Functional Oxygen plants has to be made readily available in public domain,
* Simultaneous record of fully experienced Covid Medical Warriors to kept Ready(As per WHO, One lakh 80 thousand health workers all over world have died doing Covid service till May 2021.)
***Quantification of Vaxin Wastage, preventing Misuse of Patient Dedicated Transport and state of Alertness of Covid treatment exposed Security Personnel to be taken Note Of,
* A swift Documentation of Wlling and Non willing factors & related issues (now better understood by the Collectors and the C.M.O.’s) is BOUND to be HELPFUL.
* All the positive and adverse lessons learnt seriously, in the past may have to be given Topmost priority and
* A Covid & Sound Health Advisory Authority (CSHAA) may be planned and finalized for every state to assist the Chief Minister,Health Secretary,Education Secretary & D.G,H.S, from now onwards.
* To Make Matters Simple, May I Suggest Drafting
A Covid Prevention & Control Ready Reckoner(CPCRR)?

FROM INDIA WITH LOVE FOR NEEDY OF ASIA & AFRICA

17)
(A) GRADUAL DIVERSION Of COVID Vaccine to the FRIENDLY & “OTHER” COUNTRIES on Actual Cost & Transportation Basis May Have To Be PLANNED BUT ONLY AFTER MEETING THE DOMESTIC OBLIGATIONS.

(B) Sincere drive against the unhealthy practice of Hoarding of Vaxins shall have to be launched internationally. Sustained Surplus on this count as also from “Reserved Stock” of all Vaccine Manufacturers should go from strictly humanistic perspective ,to the poor countries of Asia & Africa.

(C) EXIGENCY EMERGES FROM THE FACT THAT
In many of them not even 5 % vaccination of the first dose has been possible as yet.
(D) The exalted or essential second dose is a FAR CRY.
(E) Is there any follow up or feedback on a Special Fund in this regard, announced by the high profile G-8, atleast six months ago ?

2ND DOSE COVERAGE IS TO AUGMENTED AT ONCE

18) In India, the unimpressive figure of 32.02 crores( roughly 25% of current reported population of 139 Crores) in respect of persons vaccinated by two doses will have to be speeded up & enhanced substantially.
We may need 106 crore doses everyday to fully vaccinate the targetted population by 31st December 2021.

19) According to NET inputs, enough Vaccine is Available to administer to 40% of left over population.Further,last week 4,281,557 doses were administered each day. AT THIS RATE, IT MAY TAKE ANOTHER 64 DAYS(By 26th January,2022), to administer enough doses for another 10% of population,adds the input further.

Giving 1.51 Crore vaxins daily, however, IS GOING TO BE DIFFICULT, Keeping in view ONGOING PACE & ISSUES emanating from FREAK Weather Conditions( fresh spell of Rain likely to hit Nortern India as per IMD)

20) In view of the advice of WHO, Booster Dose may have to be administered ONLY AFTER prescribed gap between two doses.Consequently, vaxins for below 18 years and DNA based Vaccines or the Single Dose being developed, Shall Have to WAIT.

Human Problems and Issues Should Have Human Remedies, based on a Regular BUT Focussed Feedback.

TO CONCLUDE,

21) WE APPEAR TO BE ON RIGHT TRACK.
IRON IS HOT, LET US STRIKE WITH MORE VIGOUR & VITALITY.
WE MAY FEEL ELATED , NO DOUBT,
BUT ACTUAL CELEBRATION SHOULD BE AFTER GIVING BOTH THE DOSES TO ALL ELIGIBLE OFFSPRINGS OF BHARAT MAATA.

About the Author : Dr. Aaloc Srivastav, Ex CS , Sikkim is a Senior Retd Bureaucrat and passionate about writing on his favourite subjects . The views shared by the author are his personal.