Once famous for its tea , tourism and remittance from abroad, Sri Lanka, an island nation of 22 millions is facing its worst ever economic and political crisis. Inflation is all time high, there is acute shortage of fuel, cooking gas, power, essential food items and medicines. The nation is supposed to have defaulted on a staggering $ 51 Billion foreign debt . Diminishing foreign exchange reserve too is adding to the crisis. While a costly IMF package is still being negotiated, India’s emergency aid of $ 3.5 Billion in addition to humanitarian aid in terms of rice is expected to give some relief.
2) Though Bilateral relations were not smooth few years ago ,advent of Covid-19 seems to have turned the tide in favour of India. First to be offered was our indigenous vaccine for Covid under liberal terms of trade, despite criticism at home. Why only Sri Lanka, this assistance at the peak of second wave to Bhutan, Nepal, Bangladesh and Maldives may help in removing the ‘Big Brother’ tag of India. Steps could be initiated to revive SAARC summit , perhaps, under this pretext.
3) Pursuant to daily protests by general public, monks and now by students ,leading to death of eight persons and injury to over two hundred, a State of Emergency has been declared in the country for the second time. Curfew though being defied, is likely to continue. Colombo and Kandy are no longer exotic destinations.
4) After setting on fire to three houses of outgoing P.M. Mahinda Rajapakshe and forty one houses, shops & business units of key ruling party politicians ,Army has been given sweeping powers to arrest and detain anybody for twenty four hours. Even then blocking the main approach to Colombo airport for preventing loyalists of the ruling clan from leaving the country may be considered daring under the circumstances.
5) In an unprecedented development, once immensely popular Mahinda was compelled to take shelter in a Naval base in Trincomalee, 270 kms from Colombo.His crushing of thirty year old civil war perpetrated by LTTE can not be easily erased from memory of ethnic Sinhalese. Fortunately, Indians caught in the crossfire against Tamils in general earlier, have been spared so far.
6) Anita Pratap in her absorbing book ‘Island of Blood’ gives vivid description of picturesque blue lagoons, palm and cashew nut trees on the one hand and fear, horror, cruelty and anxiety factors in Jaffna peninsula on the other. One also comes across ruthless, cunning and brutal commitment of Pirabhakaran ,a “hit and run guerilla fighter” who got transformed into a “mastermind of conventional battles”.
7) Ironically when Sharief brothers and a woman family member seem to have regained some lost political territory in Pakistan, in Sri Lanka, its other way round for three Rajapakse brothers and two other kins. One of them , the Finance Minister along with Secretary Finance had already quit much ahead of resignation of the Prime Minister.
8) Even appeal for help in forming an Interim Government by the President Gotabaya Rajapaksha seems to have fallen on deaf years. Opposition may not respond favorably as the current President ,unless he also steps down, will continue to exercise powers to appoint and remove Miñisters.
Being a former Army officer, he may manage support of Army and Police for some more time but USA, China and European Union may prefer ” closely monitoring” the situation ,only.
China, in view of recent setbacks to its citizens in Pakistan may be more worried to take care of its huge investments in Sri Lanka.
Michelle Bachelet, UNHR chief ,in the meanwhile has called on the authorities to prevent further unrest.
9) One silver lining in the rapidly deteriorating scenario seems to be proactive role of Social media. The medium has been in a position to unite the suffering populace in addition to sensitizing them about day to day plans and developments. This medium, free from any regulation and guidance so far is doing more effective work viz a viz print or electronic media.
10) One by one, countries of Indian subcontinent are becoming disturbed .And U.S. and China wait for a situation when in a stage of economic and political desperation, their assistance may be sought.
Ukraine right now is also not realizing that they are being taken for a long ride after having all the distress, displacement and devastation, apart from qiickly attending to mine clearance, rebuilding and resettlement issues.
About the Author : Dr. Aaloc Srivastav, Ex CS , Sikkim is a Senior Retd Bureaucrat and passionate about writing on his favourite subjects . The views shared by the author are his personal.
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