MES | Heavy rainfall likely over Maharashtra & Karnataka during next 5 days

MES | Heavy rainfall likely over Maharashtra & Karnataka during next 5 days

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Ministry of Earth Science
Ministry of Earth Science

Realised weather in past 24 hours till 0830 hours IST of today:(details in Annexure I)

  • Yesterday, Heat wave conditions prevailed in isolated pockets of south Uttar Pradesh.
  • Yesterday, Maximum temperatures were mostly in the range of 43-46°C in isolated pockets of south Haryana, Delhi, south Uttar Pradesh, southeast Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and southwest Bihar. These were above normal by 2-4°C over these areas.
  •  Yesterday, the highest maximum temperature of 45.8°C was reported at Jhansi (West Uttar Pradesh) over the country.
  •  Heavy to very heavy rainfall with extremely heavy falls at isolated places over Coastal Karnataka; heavy to very heavy rainfall at isolated places over Konkan & Goa and Tamil Nadu, Puducherry & Karaikal; heavy rainfall at isolated places over Odisha, West Madhya Pradesh, Telangana, South Interior Karnataka and Kerala & Mahe.
  •  Dust storm observed at isolated places over Rajasthan.
  •  Hailstorm observed at isolated places over West Madhya Pradesh.
  •  Gusty winds/squally winds data reported over the country is attached in Annexure II.

Advance of Southwest Monsoon:

  •  Southwest Monsoon has advanced into some more parts of central Arabian Sea, south Maharashtra, Telangana and some parts of south Chhattisgarh & south Odisha and some more parts of Coastal Andhra Pradesh today, the 08th June, 2024.
  •  The Northern Limit of Monsoon now passes through 18.0°N/60°E, 18.0°N/65°E, 17.5°N/70°E, Harnai, Baramati, Nizamabad, Sukma, Malkangiri, Vizianagaram, 19.5°N/88°E, 21.5°N/89.5°E, 23°N/89.5°E and Islampur. (Annexure III)
  •  Conditions are favourable for further advance of Southwest Monsoon into remaining parts of central Arabian Sea, some more parts of Maharashtra (including Mumbai) and Telangana during next 2-3 days.

Weather Systems and Forecast & Warnings: (Annexure IV)

  • A cyclonic circulation lies over central Assam & neighbourhood in lower tropospheric levels. Strong southwesterly/southerly winds are prevailing from Bay of Bengal to northeastern States in lower tropospheric levels. Under their influence:
  •  Fairly widespread to widespread light to moderate rainfall accompanied with thunderstorm, lightning & gusty winds (30-40 kmph) likely over Arunachal Pradesh, Assam & Meghalaya, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram & Tripura and Sub-Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim during next 7 days.
  • Isolated heavy rainfall very likely over Sub-Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim during 08th-12th; Assam & Meghalaya and Arunachal Pradesh during 09th-12th; Nagaland on 08th & 12th June, 2024. Isolated very heavy rainfall also likely over Assam & Meghalaya on 11th & 12th June.
  • A shear zone runs roughly along 16°N in lower & middle tropospheric levels. A trough runs from Maharashtra to north Kerala in lower tropospheric levels. Under their influence:
  • Fairly widespread to widespread light to moderate rainfall accompanied with thunderstorm, lightning & gusty winds (40-50 kmph) likely over Konkan & Goa, Madhya Maharashtra, Marathwada, Karnataka, and Kerala & Mahe, Lakshadweep; isolated light to moderate rainfall over Coastal Andhra Pradesh & Yanam, Rayalaseema, Telangana, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry & Karaikal during next 5 days.
  • Isolated heavy rainfall very likely over Konkan & Goa, Madhya Maharashtra, Coastal Karnataka on 12th; Kerala & Mahe during 10th-12th; South Interior Karnataka during 08th-10th; Marathwada, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry & Karaikal and Telangana on 08th June, 2024. ✓ Isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall very likely over Konkan & Goa, Madhya Maharashtra, Coastal & North Interior Karnataka during 08th-11th; Kerala & Mahe on 08th & 09th June, 2024. Isolated extremely heavy falls also very likely over Konkan & Goa during 08th-10th; Madhya Maharashtra during 09th-11th; Coastal Karnataka on 08th-09th and North Interior Karnataka on 09th June.
  • A cyclonic circulation lies over northwest Madhya Pradesh and another over east Bihar in lower tropospheric levels. Under their influence:
  • Isolated to scattered light to moderate rainfall accompanied with thunderstorm, lightning & gusty winds (30-40 kmph) very likely over Bihar, Jharkhand, Gangetic West Bengal, Odisha, Madhya Pradesh, Vidarbha, Chhattisgarh during next 4-5 days.
  • Isolated hailstorm and squally winds (50-60 kmph) very likely over Madhya Pradesh on 08th & 09th June, 2024.
  • A Western Disturbance seen as a trough in middle tropospheric westerlies roughly along Long. 70°E to the north of Lat. 30°N. Prevailing southwesterly winds from Arabian Sea over the plains of Northwest India are likely to continue during next 2 days. Under their influence:
  • Isolated to scattered light to moderate rainfall accompanied with thunderstorm & lightning very likely over Jammu-Kashmir-Ladakh-Gilgit-Baltistan-Muzaffarabad, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand during 08th-09th June, 2024.
  • Duststorm and thundersquall very likely over Rajasthan on 08th & 09th June, 2024. Maximum temperature observation and forecast for next 5 days:
  •  Rise in maximum temperatures by 2-3°C very likely over East India during next 2 days and no significant change thereafter.
  •   Rise in maximum temperatures by 3-4°C very likely over Northwest India except Rajasthan during next 5 days.
  •  No significant change in maximum temperatures very likely over Central India during next 3 days and rise by 2-3°C thereafter.
  • No significant change in maximum temperatures very likely over rest parts of the country.
  • Heat Wave, Warm Night and Hot & Humid weather warning for next 5 days:
  • Heat wave conditions very likely in isolated pockets of northeast Madhya Pradesh, Jharkhand, Bihar, Gangetic West Bengal during 08th-12th; Odisha, Punjab, Haryana during 09th-12th; Jammu-Kashmir-Ladakh Gilgit-Baltistan-Muzaffarabad, Himachal Pradesh during 10th-12th June, 2024.
  •  Heat wave conditions very likely in isolated pockets of Uttar Pradesh on 08th and heat wave to severe heat wave conditions in some parts over the region during 09th-12th June, 2024.
  •  Hot and humid weather very likely to prevail over isolated pockets of Odisha on 08th June, 2024.
  •   Warm night very likely to prevail over Bihar on 08th & 09th June, 2024.

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