As Covid-19 is expected to make a comeback in October, are we ready to pull up our sleeves or willing to commit mistakes of the Second Wave ? We have seen the worst between first week of April to third week of May in 2021 but we tend to forget these despite having a massive setback in view of a record 4 lakh 14 thousand 188 confirmed cases on 7th May, 3023 deaths and 34 lakh plus Active cases were also recorded. While Maharastra, Karnataka, Kerala, U.P., T.N. and West Bengal were top six states,Delhi at 10th position had one of the highest Positivity Rates at 36% on 22nd April which came down to 23.3% on 8th May. Top ten states had accounted for over 27 lakh cases.
In retrospect, there is a felt need to check and cross check such crucial figures.WHO has already expressed concern over the general practice of wrong reporting.
VACCINATIONS:NEED & WASTAGE PREVENTION
2) Despite all claimed and actual reports, apart from Need of Vaccine , per se, Wastage Prevention should have been the focus area. At the peak period,both Pfizer and Moderna should have been permitted alongwith Sputnik. As such, allowing Sputnik was an exercise in lip service.
Human elements , such as social stigma & rejection faced by the healthcare workers, both from neighbours and family members shall also have to be addressed swiftly.
Ironically, Kerala leading in terms of impressive coverage with least Vaxin wastage, is still leading in terms of 24 hour cases. Further,as regards need, requirements are mostly put on higher side.Such as, Delhi highlighted the need for 26 million more doses by first week of May. Later,she was also found guilty of inflating the requirement of Oxygen cylinders.
Sensing or assessing correctly, very dedicated former Union Health Minister went on record that WITH the then daily Vaxin administration figures of 17 lakhs a day, our country was going to take THREE YEARS TO COVER ADULT POPULATION ONLY.
(Who knew that speaking such a bitter truth was going to COST his job ?)
On the other hand, Manish Sisodia,the Deputy C.M. of Delhi had alleged that 6.5 crore doses were exported to 93 countries when they were badly required domestically. The Health Minister had also honestly confessed that S.I.I, Pune was in a position to produce 6 crore doses per month as against an unimpressive performance of Bharat Biotech, Hyderabad at barely 2 crore doses per month. Thus combined daily production of two drug manufacturers would come to roughly 26 lakh doses only.
Insult to Injury
3) To add insult to injury, mind boggling or astonishing surge took place in a fortnight at this juncture. High figures disclosed officially by the Health Minister were Self Explanatory- ‘Assam had a fortnightly SPIKE of staggering 294 %,Kerala 178 %,W. Bengal 143 %, Pudducherry 116 %, and Tamil Nadu 104%. ‘
Even the tiny and safe state of Sikkim recorded over 200 daily from 5th to 9th May,2021.
Maharastra which was unfortunately the “Leader” for a long time, surprisingly showed a marginal decline of 0.4%.
International Outlook
4)Coming to International assessment if not soothsaying, WHO Senior Scientist Mrs Swaminathan further warned that the Corona variant of B.1.617 spreading in India was more contagious. The renowned LANCET Institute too expressed candidly that ” Govt .of India did not ACT in time, so condition had deteriorated”.
Rural Situation
5)When the Pandemic spread rapidly in rural areas also, almost everywhere, complaints of headache,bodyache, sleep loss,fever etc began surfacing. According to a report , fifty thousand cases were reported in Karnataka alone, of which atleast 50 % were from Bengaluru. Incidently, earlier” major villains”,viz, Mumbai,Pune & Nashik could exercise more control as opposed to situation therein during the first wave.
Weather Position
6) On the weather front, maximum temperature began hovering between 40 to 43 degrees with little bit of drizzle in between, making life more miserable.
It is generally believed that subsequent to a head shave off, hail storms will have a Field Day. Rightly so, that is happening if the dry and wet weather trend since August is to be closely examined. In Sept.2020,it was an adverse and challenging scenario in respect of spread of Corona Virus. This September(wettest in 114 years), temperature has fallen rapidly due to unusually WET conditions. Nature God appears to be angry with slight variation,in almost all nooks and corners.
Emerging Vaccination Trend
7 )On the one hand, the speed of Vaccination seems to have picked up momentum with 88.96 crore vaccinations(roughly 44% of population). However, fresh or “reworked ” GOAL of one Billion Jabs by early October MAY NOT BE REALISTIC. Also people with two doses number barely 23.97 crores.One must not forget that one is considered fully protected only after receiving the second dose.
Not only a nasal vaccine seems to be on the anvil but ZyCoV-D, a DNA vaccine being developed by Zydus Caddola is also about to go in for commercial production. It is also likely to be a precursor to first Dengue DNA vaccine. Meanwhile, reports are also being received about under reporting of Dengue,viral fever and Corona cases especially from Haryana,U.P.,Delhi and Bihar. While 12 plus children are to be administered vaxins from 1st October,Illegal Corona jab drive also seems to be a thriving business for materialistic Indians in several places.
Grim Mortality and PR Scene
8) There is only a marginal decline in casualty figures in major states ,such as, Maharastra,Karnataka and Tamil Nadu (4,48,000 Pan India as opposed to 6,75,000 in USA) and almost adamant phenomenon of Positivity rate still being between 5 to 10 % ,especially in Kerala,Mizoram,Maharastra,Tamil Nadu and Sikkim.
In Mizoram, average daily number of over 1400 cases (highest 1846 being on 28th September) during 13 day period from 16 August to 30th September, defies all imagination.A more focussed drive by the Centre on a war footing may be urgently needed.
Instead of an expected “fall”, a non abatement situation, is certain to give us less tension and anxiety.
Topsy Turvy Weather
9) Let us examine to what extent moody or topsy turvy weather has to contribute to the mess, together with our irresistible and unique, Back To” Social” temptation.
Indian Metreological Depatment(IMD) opines that the atmospheric low pressure and depressions lead to heavy rain.Cyclones too are not ruled out.We already had three on East coast and one along the West coast during 2021, leading to tremendous loss of life and property. The latest Gulab,is predicted to make a turn around with Shaheen which may hit west coast as well.
The South West Monsoon which touched the coast of Kerala, three days late in June, and about four weeks behind schedule in Delhi area,was due to meet its natural end by 16 September.On the contrary,as per trends ,its “withdrawal symptom ” is unlikely to be noticed by 10th October. According to IMD, the withdrawal process is going to be second most delayed in 41 years.
The extended range model of IMD is hinting at a widespread rain till 7th of October and a “patchy” one till 14th October.Thus the leftover spirit of the Navratras, D.P, Vijay Dashmi, Diwali and Chhath will be further subdued. For Good ?
Possibility or Certainty of 3rd Wave
10) As such, the common man is getting confused with expected arrival of 3rd Wave soon ,or its denial or slowing down or may be non-existence altogether,as winter picks up momentum, slowly.
Fear consciousness if not Psychosis is looming large side by side,since August especially in Haryana, U.P., NCR, Bihar etc due to onslaught of a strange viral kind of fever which has taken a toll of over 500(?),mainly children and more than 300 or so still struggling for their lives in the dilapidated hospitals & dispensaries. Hundreds of Dengue and viral fever cases are being added every week in Delhi, Ghaziabad and Noida.
As an instance,467 patients with respiratory issues and 337 with fever one day, turned up at a Health camp in NOIDA.
11) Having come across this unusual wrath of nature, one may genuinely ask:
“Is Global Warming worth its name or has it turned into Global Cooling ?”
Developments in the domain of weather forecasting indicate so. From the Death Valley in USA to Greenland in Europe to the cold deserts of Siberia to warm ones of Sahara and Thar and from Indian to Pacific ocean, its the same strange play of nature.
Should we hope that in the wake of revival of QUAD or initiative of defence alliance of AUKUS ,both targetted at China, something positive also comes out on weather front ?
Unprecedented Rise in Natural Calamities
12) Over two years, there has been unprecedented spike in number of earthquakes, volcanoes, cyclones, hurricanes, floods, flash floods, cloud bursts, land slides, forest fires etc Many of them may have occurred in non identified vulnerable or susceptible zones. In almost all the continents as also North Pole, its the same haywire situation or the erratic wrath of nature.
Nature seems to be annoyed as we are resorting more and more to unsustainable utilisation patterns by ignoring the minimum possible needs of future generations.
Is it a mad Rush or a calculated desire To Crush ( Each Other) ?
13) By ensuring long duration international co-operation and adoption of careful wait and watch strategy could be a sensible alternative, instead of planning and executing hurried and short term cut and paste solutions. Close on the wheels of P.M.’s address at UNGA setting up of a crack team of top scientists by the WHO to reexamine the origin of Corona virus could be considered a welcome step. However, it could have been resorted to, long ago. It is never too late.
To Withdraw the Mouse, A.Malthus, the renowned British Economist had said long Ago ” When Man Fails,Nature Takes Over”. Is it actually happening ? Almost 20 lakh Indians die of heart attacks every year but less than two lakh Covid deaths during 2021 severely impacts our mental faculty and family stability.
Let us introspect with due care and caution by forgetting our taste and preferences , to seek a viable answer for the good of entire human race.
About the Author : Dr. Aaloc Srivastav, Ex CS , Sikkim is a Senior Retd Bureaucrat and passionate about writing on his favourite subjects . The views shared by the author are his personal.
Leave a Reply
You must be logged in to post a comment.