Russian neo imperialistic designs by troubling Ukraine, coupled with her unilateral merger of four regions of eastern Ukraine is not going to end soon. Hostilities are increasing despite clear signs of dissent within Russia and exodus of a large number of Russians from the country. The one sided attack that was thrust upon on Ukraine on 24th February,2022, was never expected to last so long. But NATO is also not realising the imminent winter pinch as yet, even when hiccups keep surfacing in the vital gas line from Russia to West Europe. It is bound to be more detrimental to people of concerned European countries in immediate future. There may be further escalation of crude oil price as also food grains.
2) In view of latest attacks on 19 kms long vital bridge over the Kerch strait, inaugurated between Russia and Crimea in 2018 and immediate attacks by 81 Cruise missile attacks, leading to 26 deaths in the centre of Kyiv, situation seems to have heated up again. Explosions were also reported in Lviv, Ternopil, Zhyromyr, Dnipro, Kremenchuk, Zaporizhzhia and Kharkiev. Even Ukraine’s energy infrastructure and supporting systems were not spared,which may cause rolling blackouts. After fresh strikes by using Iranian made drones having winged missiles, more harsh attacks have been hinted at in future, by President Putin.
3) While fresh fears about use of nuclear weapons are being heard, UNO continues to act as an almost defunct body. India, which was expected to herald some ray of hope to make a dent, continues to take a safe stand of abstention after abstention. Expressing her concern again, India has called for cessation of hostilities and return to the oft repeated path of diplomacy and dialogue.
4) Meanwhile, Alexander Lukashenko, President of Belarus since 1994 has claimed that Ukrain was preparing for an attack on his country’s territory. European Union has condemned barbaric missile strikes by Russia. President Joe Biden has also stated that these attacks further reinforce our commitment to stand with the people of Ukraine for as long as it takes.
5) In another development, over fifty Western nations have met recently with a view to promise more weapons and air defence systems to Ukraine. Germany has also sent an IRIS- T SLM air defence system while USA is also likely to speed up delivery of a promised Nasams air defence system.
6) More than the plight of common man in West European countries, it is the rising miseries of Ukraineans that should draw our immediate attention.Think about setbacks rather devastation already caused to agricultural land, education, health, basic utilities, civil supplies and overall economy of the suffering nation. Luckily so far, it seems to have escaped the onslaught of climate change.
FLUID SITUATION IN U.K.
7) Undettered by internal threats, U.K.’s fourth Prime Minister in six years has given her consent to attending a G-7 virtual meeting concerning latest situation in Ukraine. But we may know that her country is drawing attention for wrong reasons. Her Conservative Party probably thought that after having a Briton again as the Premier, they could explore a solution to various ills & challenges being faced by their economy. But their new “tight lipped leader” is neither performing nor is she giving a free hand to her colleagues to act. In a span of six to seven weeks, one cannot expect wonders in an otherwise fast changing world dynamics. It is not only question of tax cuts alone, emerging market turmoil too has to quieten down and high cost of living has to be scaled down.
8) In view of sudden dropping of Kawasi Kwarteng, Chancellor of Excheqor and appointment of Jeremy Hunt as his successor, doubts are also being raised about the very survival of her government and possible return of arch rivals Labour party in the next General elections. If a report in The Times is to be believed ,some lawmakers have held secret discussions on replacing Truss with a new leader already. Liz Truss needs to realise that not only scenario has changed in last couple of years but in King Charles III, she has a tough boss,even if he may be having a limited role to play.
IRANIAN CRISIS GATHERS FRESH MOMENTUM
9) It’s now five weeks of country wide protests over death of Mahsa Amini, spearheaded by women and students against the vexed Hijab policy of the Islamic republic. It is likely to sustain further or achieve its objective also in view of continued pouring in of support from all over the world. It has emerged as the boldest challenge to the Iranian state so far. Fatalities have mounted to 201,including 23 children, as per data maintained by a Norway based Iran Human Rights organisation.
10) Basij, the Morality police outfit regarded as a pillar of the Islamic Republic has intensified crackdown on Kurdish areas as oil workers too are demonstrating outside key refineries in Sanandaj and Abadan. Fresh killing of a young school girl in Ardabil and forcible arrest of a woman in Karaj has further precipitated the crisis. Interestingly, daughter of Iran’s former President A.H.Rafsanjani arrested already for showing her support to the movement has been charged with” propaganda” activity. Faezeh Hashmi,a former law maker and women’s rights activist has also been arrested for inciting residents to take part in pro Mahsa Amini demonstrations.
11) University protests are focussing on demand to release arrested students, some of them arrested in the name of ” behaviorial corrections”. Now public personalities ,such as, film makers are also facing hurdles by way of denial to board a flight to screen a movie.
DEVELOPMENTS IN PAKISTAN
12) Our next door neighbour continues to shower us with arms and unwanted materials through the latest weapon of Drone, patronised by her. She appears undettered by internal disturbances, prolonging of impact of worst ever floods which has impacted over 30 million people, highest ever inflation,spiralling prices of essential commodities and a failing foreign policy. Talking of U.S. aid to Pakistan, it is $ 100 millions only as compared to $ 500 milions during country’s last major flood in 2010.
13) Latest blow to her, however, is from U.S. President who has said that Pakistan is one of the most dangerous nations which has nuclear weapons “without any cohesion”.Pakistan P.M. Shehbaz Sharief has rejected Biden’s remarks asserting that his country was a responsible nuclear state and that their nuclear assets had the best safeguards as per IAEA safeguards.
14) Relations between USA and Pakistan seem to have worsened as U.S.A. has accused Pakistan for providing sanctuary to Talibans , a charge denied by Pakistan. Despite making such remarks , USA has approved an aid of $ 450 millions to Pakistan for the maintenance of F-16 fighter jets . So one can imagine double speak by USA in this regard. Expected support from China vis a vis Pakistan on this issue , however, is also not emerging as they seem to be preoccupied with the 20th Congress of Chinese Communist Party which may repose its faith again in the leadership of Xi Jingping. However, only silver lining seems to be likely exit of Pakistan from the” Grey List” of the Paris based global watch dog, Financial Action Task Force.
CHINESE CHEQUERS
15 ) Efforts are afoot to make President Xi Jinping, son of a revolutionary military General, as more powerful and long lasting than Mao Zhe Dong. The formidable ruling party Congress has already begun amidst rumours of protests being organised by a large section of Chinese and overall opposition to Zero Covid strategy despite its negative economic impact. Photos of protests against the policy are being shared on social media in a big way as it has adversely affected livelihood of daily wagers and and slowed down country’s economy. Many of these posts are being blocked and some accounts are being temporarily suspended.
16)Banners too seem to be playing a prominent role this time. One of the banners says ” Food ,not Covid tests, Reform, not cultural revolution, Freedom , not Lockdowns, Votes, not a leader, Dignity, not lies and Citizens, not Slaves”. Another banner boldly reads ” Go on strike, Remove dictator and national traitor Xi Jinping”.
Rumours are afloat about new rounds of tests and restrictions in Shanghai, Xian, Shenzhen and other urban centres after about 4000 new Covid cases were reported .
17) With Xi Jinping sure to retighten his grip on power for the next five years as General Secretary of the party, head of Central Military Commission and the President, it remains to be seen whether China’s political class will have more vigour and vitality than before.
He has hailed Hong Kong’s transition from ” chaos to governance”, vowed to fight against climate crisis, oppose cold war mentality and never to abandon use of force over Taiwan.
18) However, showing of a video of clashes between Indian and Chinese soldiers in Galwan valley in June 2020 and President Jinping’s indication of it as one of the achievements of China is bound to worsen Sino-India relations. Honour bestowed on Qi Fabao, Galwan Commander of People’s Liberation Army and their so called Galwan “hero” is also likely to further complicate matters. But Xi Jinping looks to have complete sway over party and the government till CPC Congress is held again.
About the Author : Dr. Aaloc Srivastav, Ex CS , Sikkim is a Senior Retd Bureaucrat and passionate about writing on his favourite subjects . The views shared by the author are his personal.
