No one would have thought and imagined that Russian invasion of Ukraine would last so long. Despite non serious attempts by a few Head of States, nothing concrete has been done to bring the two nations on a negotiating table.
2)When sustaining the war proved too cumbersome for the attacking nation, possibly a bout of rethinking prevailed. Troops getting tired of senseless attacks or approaching harsh winter may have contributed to a review. Apart from ordeal as also dislocation of millions of Ukraineans, reported casualty of almost a Lakh of soldiers on both the sides, may have also caused a temporary cessation of hostilities.The office of High Commissioner Human Rights has found that both Russia and Ukraine were reported to have tortured prisoners of wars during the ongoing conflict, citing instances including dog attacks, use of electric shocks and forced nudity.
3)Though retreat order has been issued by Sergei Shoigu, Defence Minister of Russia, it must have been decided at the highest level. Turning the pages of history would reveal that the mighty Adolf Hitler was also reluctant to give similar order himself during the infamous seize of Stalingrad by his forces in 1942.
It has happened after large scale destruction of infrastructure, power plants, water supplies as also vital bridges. Setback to Ukrain’ s economy can not be calculated. Citizens of Ukraine who were compelled to desert their homes and farm land, are rejoicing and celebrating. But rebuilding process would not be an easy proposition. Evidence of possible war crimes may have to be gathered , apart from identification and neutralization of unexploded ordinance.
COURAGE OF PRESIDENT ZELENSKY
4) President Zelensky’s visit to Kherson within a few days of its vacation by Russians can boost morale of residents. While they cheered, Zelensky vowed to restore whole of land occupied by Russians.
He is perhaps right in saying that his troops were going to move ahead very carefully , so as to ensure minimum losses.
Retreat, taking place after six weeks of “annexation” of Kherson and three other regions in Eastern Ukraine was imposed. As such, annexation was a breach of International law. Despite Russian claims of consolidation, fighting continues in Luhansk and Donetsk regions. With the passage of time, Ukrainean troops could strengthen themselves due to fresh deployment of medium and high range weapon systems and better training from U.S.A, U.K. and Germany. On the other hand, troops of Russia are a tired lot and their procurement is also reported to have slowed down.
5) Leaving behind Kherson,the only provincial capital they captured in nine months of aggression, would not be easy for Russians. Apart from a certain stoppage of water of Dniper river to Crimea and denial of a vital Black Sea port facility, fear of a fresh attack may loom large when they withdraw. While stalled up stocks of food grains and fertilizer may not be loaded , administration over Crimea in new situation too may be difficult.
UNPREDICTABLE PUTIN
6) Russian President does not appear to have conceded defeat. Fresh missile attacks in Kherson and some other areas will certainly bely expectations.Who knows ,he may be on the verge of changeing his mind again ? It was a well thought of move on his part for having decided not to attend the forthcoming G-20 Summit in Bali but in view of a detailed dialogue between US and Chinese Presidents ,he may perhaps await a new equation.
STAND OF U.K.
7) As regards stand of U.K. following change in leadership, Rishi Sunak is yet to make any statement on Russia-Ukraine conflict unlike Boris Johnson who was very vociferous,so much so, that he visited Ukraine twice, the last time as a Caretaker P.M. Either new British P.M. wishes to play safe for the present or for him domestic priority of setting right things on consumer front gets precedence. Even his courtesy meeting with P.
M.Modi in Bali appears to have been a matter of formality.
Scope of a Third Party Intervention ?
8) It looks very unlikely to have any bearing on bringing two opposed nations to the negotiating table. First France tried, thereafter Turkey, then Mexico President has also suggested setting up a Peace committee also comprising of India. But in the present era of diplomacy based on fast communication, any surprising development is not ruled out.
INDIAN STAND
9)As far as India is concerned, she has not condemned Russian invasion as such but has maintained a consistent stand that crisis needs to be resolved through diplomacy. Since 24th February,2022 ,PM Modi has spoken to President V. Putin several times and also spoke to President Zelensky on a couple of occasions. While addressing G-20 nations in Bali, P.M.Modi stated candidly that world institutions including U.N. has failed to deal with challenges arising out of Ukraine conflict, Covid and Climate change .
On September 16th, on the sidelines of SCO meeting in Samarkand, Modi had told Putin that today’s era was not of war. On October 14th also he had clearly conveyed to President Zelensky that there can be no military solution and that India was ready to contribute to any peace efforts.
10) External Affairs Minister S Jaishanker has been frantically going to several world capitals, explaining India’s suggestion for diplomacy and dialogue. During ongoing ASEAN Summit in Cambodia, he has met the Foreign Ministers of Ukraine and Russia prior to having a detailed meeting with the American Secretary of State.
11) The whole world was awaiting with considerable interest the first “face to face” between Joe Biden and Xi Jinping in Bali. Now that it has happened, there is no further possibility of any cold war. U.S President has claimed that China too seems to have given an impression that use of nuclear weapons in Ukraine was totally unacceptable. Further,as per the White House, US has specifically mentioned their concern about China’s actions in Xinjiang, Tibet, Hong Kong and plight of some Americans in China. On the whole, Biden found Ji Xinping “direct and straightforward”.
12)As regards Ukraine, It remains to be seen whether battle lines would be redrawn or return to talks will be possible. Latter will be in the interest of millions of people not only in Ukraine but also in many European nations, who have a rough and tough winter, ahead, apart from emerging signs of another recession. To conclude, G-20 summit at Bali appeared divided (among G-20 nations) over bid to condemn Russian invasion of Ukraine. On the other hand, Russian Foreign Minister has stated that West tried to politicise G-20 declaration.
About the Author : Dr. Aaloc Srivastav, Ex CS , Sikkim is a Senior Retd Bureaucrat and passionate about writing on his favourite subjects . The views shared by the author are his personal.
