MES | 1730 Hrs. IST – Super Cyclonic Storm ‘AMPHAN’ over west central Bay of Bengal

According to the latest release (at 1730 Hrs. IST) by the National Weather Forecasting Centre/Cyclone Warning Divisionof the India Meteorological Department:

(Attn. Updates are marked in Colour).

The Super Cyclonic Storm‘AMPHAN’ (pronounced as UM-PUN) over WestcentralBay of Bengal moved north-northeastwardswith a speed of 18 kmph during past 06 hours and lay centred at 1430 hrs IST of 19^th May, 2020 as an Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm near latitude 17.0°N and longitude 86.9°E over Westcentral Bay of Bengal about 420 km nearly south of Paradip (Odisha), 570 km south-southwest of Digha (West Bengal) and 700 km south-southwest of Khepupara (Bangladesh).      It is very likely to move north-northeastwards across northwest Bay of Bengal and cross West Bengal – Bangladesh coasts between Digha (West Bengal) and Hatiya Islands (Bangladesh) close to Sundarbans during Afternoon to Evening hours of 20^th May 2020 with maximum sustained wind speed of 155-165 kmph gusting to 185 kmph.      The system is now being continuously tracked by the Doppler Weather Radar (DWR) at Vishakhapatnam (Andhra Pradesh).

Forecast track and intensity are given in the following table:

Date/Time(IST)

Position

(Lat. 0N/ long. 0E)

Maximum sustained surface 

wind speed (Kmph)

Category of cyclonic disturbance

19.05.20/1430

17.0/86.9

200-210 gusting to 230

19.05.20/1730

17.1/87.1

200-210 gusting to 230

19.05.20/2330

18.0/87.3

190-200 gusting to 220

20.05.20/0530

19.3/87.7

180-190 gusting to 210

20.05.20/1130

20.9/88.2

160-170 gusting to 190

20.05.20/2330

22.7/88.7

95-105 gusting to 115

21.05.20/1130

24.3/89.3

50-60 gusting to 70

21.05.20/2330

25.6/90.2

20-30 gusting to 40

(1) Heavy rainfall Warning:

Odisha

Light to moderate rainfall is very likely at most places of coastal Odisha with heavy to very heavy rainfall at isolated placesJagatsinghpur, Kendrapara and BhadrakDistricts and isolated heavyfalls over Jajpur, Balasore,Cuttack, Mayurbhanj,Khordha&Puri districts on 19^th May and isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall at isolated places over north coastal Odisha (Balasore, Bhadrak, Mayurbhanj, Jajpur, Kendrapara and Keonjhargarh Districts) on 20^th May 2020.

 West Bengal Coastal districts of Gangetic West Bengal (East Medinipur, South & North 24 Parganas) are likely to experience light to moderate rainfall at many places commencing from today, the 19^th May evening.Rainfall intensity is likely to increase gradually and become maximum on 20^thMay. Rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places & extremely heavy falls at isolated places likely over Gangetic West Bengal (east & west Medinipur, south & north 24 Parganas, Howrah, Hoogli, Kolkata and adjoining districts)on 20^th May and isolated heavy rain over interior districts on 21^st May, 2020.

Sub-Himalayan West Bengal and Sikkim Light to moderate rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places over Malda& Dinajpur districts on 20^th May and over most of the districts of Sub-Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim on 21^st May, 2020.

Assam & Meghalaya   Light to moderate rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places over the western districts of Assam & Meghalaya on 21^st May.

(2) Wind warning

West Bengal & Odisha Squally wind, speed reaching 55 to 65 kmph gusting to 75 kmph is prevailing along & off south Odisha coast and 40-50 kmph gusting to 60 kmph along & off north Odisha coast. It is very likely to increase becoming 55 to 65 kmph gusting to 75 kmph along & off north Odisha coast by today evening and along & off West Bengal coast by tonight.

• The wind speed will gradually increase becoming gale wind speed reaching 75 to 85 kmph gusting to 95 kmph from 20^th morning along and off north Odisha coast (Jagatsinghpur, Kendrapara, Bhadrak, Balasore and Mayurbhanj districts) and West Bengal coast (east & west Medinipur, south & north 24 Parganas, Howrah, Hoogli, Kolkata Districts). It will gradually increase thereafter becoming 100 to 110 kmph gusting to 125 kmph along & off the above mentioned districts of North Odisha.
• Gale wind speed reaching 155 to 165 kmph gusting to 185 kmph very likely along & off east Medinipur and north & south 24 Parganas districts and 110-120 kmph gusting to 130 kmph over Kolkata, Hoogli, Howrah and West Medinipur Districts of West Bengal during the time of landfall (20^th afternoon to night).
•  Squally wind speed reaching 55-65 kmph gusting to 75 kmph likely to prevail over Puri, Khordha, Cuttack, Jajpur districts of Odisha during 20^th May 2020.

Deep Sea area Gale wind speed reaching 210-220 gusting to 240 kmph is prevailing over westcentral Bay of Bengal. Gale wind speed reaching 200-210 gusting to 230 kmph is likely to prevail over northern parts of central Bay of Bengal and adjoining North Bay of Bengal from the evening of today, the 19^thMay. It will gradually decrease becoming 165-175 kmph gusting to 195 kmph by 20^th afternoon.

(3) Sea condition:

• Sea condition is Phenomenal and is likely to continue for next 06 hours over southern parts of Westcentral Bay of Bengal. It will become Phenomenal over northern parts of central Bay of Bengal and adjoining north Bay of Bengal by today evening and over north Bay of Bengal on 20^th May 2020.

(4) Fishermen Warning

• The fishermen are advised not to venture into west-central and adjoining central parts of south Bay of Bengal during next 24 hours, into central Bay of Bengal and North Bay of Bengal during 19^th to 20^th May 2020.
• Also, fishermen are advised not to venture into North Bay of Bengal along and off North Odisha, West Bengal and adjoining Bangladesh coasts till 20th May 2020.

(5)Storm Surge expected

• Storm Surge of about 4-5 meters above Astronomical Tide is likely to inundate low lying areas of south & north 24 Parganas and about 3-4 meters over the low lying areas of East Medinipur District of West Bengal during the time of Landfall. (Figure enclosed)

(6)Damage Expected and Action suggested

(a) West Bengal (east Medinipur, south & north 24 Parganas, Howrah, Hoogli, Kolkata districts)

Damage Expected:

• Extensive damage to all types of kutcha houses, some damage to old badly managed Pucca structures. Potential threat from flying objects.
• Extensive uprooting of communication and power poles.
• Disruption of rail/road link at several places.
• Extensive damage to standing crops, plantations, orchards.
• Blowing down of Palm and coconut trees.
• Uprooting of large bushy trees.
• Large boats and ships may get torn from their moorings.

Fishermen Warning & Action Suggested:

• Total suspension of fishing operations till 20th May 2020.
• Diversion or suspension of rail and road traffic.
•  People in affected areas to remain indoors. Mobilise evacuation from Low lying areas.
• Movement in motor boats and small ships not advisable.

(b) Odisha (Jagatsinghpur, Kendrapara, Bhadrak, Balasore, Jajpur& Mayurbhanj)

Damage Expected:

• Total destruction of thatched houses/ extensive damage to kutcha houses. Potential threat from flying objects.
• Bending/ uprooting of power and communication poles.
• Major damage to Kutcha and Pucca roads. Minor disruption of railways, overhead power lines and signalling systems.
• Widespread damage to standing crops, plantations, orchards, falling of green coconuts and tearing of palm fronds. Blowing down of bushy trees like mango.
• Small boats, country crafts may get detached from moorings.

Fishermen Warning & Action Suggested:

• Total suspension of fishing operations till 20th May 2020.
• Diversion or suspension of rail and road traffic.
•  People in affected areas to remain indoors.
• Movement in motor boats and small ships not advisable.

Kindly visit www.rsmcnewdelhi.imd.gov.in and www.mausam.imd.gov.in for updates on the system.

 (Please see details and UPDATED graphics in this link here)